Population expansion among agriculturalists was followed by territorial expansion among agriculturalists. Territorial expansion made more land available for food production—and no one goes into farming to reduce food production. More land, more food production, more population growth.
With more people, we need more food. With more food available, we soon have more people—as predicted by the laws of ecology. With more people, we need more food. With more food, we soon have more people. With more people, we need more food. With more food, we soon have more people.
Positive feedback, this is called, in systems terminology. Another example: When conditions at the thermostat convey the information “Too hot,” the thermostat turns the furnace ON instead of OFF. That’s positive feedback. Negative feedback checks an increasing effect. Positive feedback reinforces an increasing effect.
Positive feedback is what we see at work in this agricultural revolution of ours. Increased population stimulates increased food production, which increases the population. More food, more people. More people, more food. More food, more people. More people, more food. More food, more people. Positive feedback. Bad stuff. Dangerous stuff.
The experiment run 10,000 times
What is observed in the human population is that intensification of production to feed an increased population invariably leads to a still greater increase in population. I’ve seen this called a paradox, but in fact it’s only what the laws of ecology predict. Listen to it again: “Intensification of production to feed an increased population invariably leads to a still greater increase in population.”
Think of it as an experiment that has been performed annually in our culture for the last ten thousand years: Let’s see what happens if we increase food production this year. Hey, whaddya know, our population increased too! Let’s see what happens next year if we increase food production.
Hey, whaddya know, our population increased again! Do you suppose there’s a connection?
Nah, why would there be?
Well, what shall we do this year? Increase production or decrease it? Well, we gotta increase it, don’t we, because we’ve got more mouths to feed!
Okay, let’s increase food production again this year and see what happens. Wow, look at that! Population up again.
Well, let’s increase production again and see what happens. Who knows, maybe this time the population will go down.
Nope, up again. Amazing.
These thumbnail conversations describe the results of five annual experiments performed in ancient times. Imagine nine thousand nine hundred ninety-five more of them, bringing us up to the present year, 1996, when we have to ask ourselves, well, what are we going to do this year? Decrease food production?
No way, don’t be ridiculous.
Well, whaddya say, let’s just keep it the same as last year just for once. You know, see what happens?
Are you kidding? Civilization would crash and burn.
Why? If we produced enough food for five and a half billion people last year, why should civilization crash and burn if we produce enough for five and a half billion people this year?
Because enough for five and a half billion wasn’t enough. Millions are starving.
Yeah, but everyone knows that this isn’t because food is lacking. The food is there, it’s just not getting to the people who are starving.
Look, didn’t we have this conversation in 1990?
Sure we had it in 1990.
We had it in 1990 and in 1921 during the Russian famine and in 1846 during the Irish famine and in 1783 during the Japanese famine and in 1591 during the Italian famine and in 1315 during the European famine. God, I can remember having this conversation in the sixth century B.C. during the Roman famines.
Well, that’s the point I’m making. How many times have we run this experiment?
About ten thousand times. Ten thousand times we’ve decided to increase food production, an
d ten thousand times the population has gotten bigger. Doesn’t prove anything, of course. This time could be different. This time the population might go down.
Well, okay, let’s try it one more time. We’ll increase food production again this year and see what happens….
Hey, whaddya know. The population went up again this time. Quite a coincidence, huh?
Three demonstrations
Let me spend a few minutes now outlining a series of demonstrations that will clarify the issues I’ve raised here.