Mrs. Doyle was last seen alive by her maid, Louise Bourget. Time: 11:30 (approx.).
From 11:30–12:20 following have alibis: Cornelia Robson, James Fanthorp, Simon Doyle, Jacqueline de Bellefort—nobody else—but crime almost certainly committed after that time, since it is practically certain that pistol used was Jacqueline de Bellefort’s, which was then in her handbag. That her pistol was used is not absolutely certain until after postmortem and expert evidence re bullet—but it may be taken as overwhelmingly probable.
Probable course of events: X (murderer) was witness of scene between Jacqueline and Simon Doyle in observation saloon and noted where pistol went under settee. After the saloon was vacant, X procured pistol—his or her idea being that Jacqueline de Bellefort would be thought guilty of crime. On this theory certain people are automatically cleared of suspicion:
Cornelia Robson, since she had no opportunity to take pistol before James Fanthorp returned to search for it.
Miss Bowers—same.
Dr. Bessner—same.
N.B.—Fanthorp is not definitely excluded from suspicion, since he could actually have pocketed pistol while declaring himself unable to find it.
Any other person could have taken the pistol during that ten minutes’ interval.
Possible motives for the murder:
Andrew Pennington. This is on the assumption that he has been guilty of fraudulent practices. There is a certain amount of evidence in favour of that assumption, but not enough to justify making out a case against him. If it was he who rolled down the boulder, he is a man who can seize a chance when it presents itself. The crime, clearly, was not premeditated except in a general way. Last night’s shooting scene was an ideal opportunity.
Objections to the theory of Pennington’s guilt: Why did he throw the pistol overboard, since it constituted a valuable clue against J.B.?
Fleetwood. Motive, revenge. Fleetwood considered himself injured by Linnet Doyle. Might have overheard scene and noted position of pistol. He may have taken pistol because it was a handy weapon, rather than with the idea of throwing guilt on Jacqueline. This would fit in with throwing it overboard. But if that were the case, why did he write J in blood on the wall?
N.B.—Cheap handkerchief found with pistol more likely to have belonged to a man like Fleetwood than to one of the well-to-do passengers.
Rosalie Otterbourne. Are we to accept Miss Van Schuyler’s evidence or Rosalie’s denial? Something was thrown overboard at the time and that something was presumably the pistol wrapped up in the velvet stole.
Points to be noted. Had Rosalie any motive? She may have disliked Linnet Doyle and even been envious of her—but as a motive for murder that seems grossly inadequate. The evidence against her can be convincing only if we discover an adequate motive. As far as we know, there is no previous knowledge or link between Rosalie Otterbourne and Linnet Doyle.
Miss Van Schuyler. The velvet stole in which pistol was wrapped belonged to Miss Van Schuyler. According to her own statement she last saw it in the observation saloon. She drew attention to its loss during the evening, and a search was made for it without success.
How did the stole come into the possession of X? Did X purloin it some time early in the evening? But if so, why? Nobody could tell, in advance, that there was going to be a scene between Jacqueline and Simon. Did X find the stole in the saloon when he went to get the pistol from under the settee? But if so, why was it not found when the search for it was made? Did it never leave Miss Van Schuyler’s possession? That is to say: Did Miss Van Schuyler murder Linnet Doyle? Is her accusation of Rosalie Otterbourne a deliberate lie? If she did murder her, what was her motive?
Other possibilities:
Robbery as a motive. Possible, since the pearls have disappeared, and Linnet Doyle was certainly wearing them last night.
Someone with a grudge against the Ridgeway family. Possible—again no evidence.
We know that there is a dangerous man on board—a killer. Here we have a killer and a death. May no
t the two be connected? But we should have to show that Linnet Doyle possessed dangerous knowledge concerning this man.
Conclusions: We can group the persons on board into two classes—those who had a possible motive or against whom there is definite evidence, and those who, as far as we know, are free of suspicion.
Group I: Andrew Pennington
Group II: Mrs. Allerton
Group I: Fleetwood
Group II: Tim Allerton
Group I: Rosalie Otterbourne
Group II: Cornelia Robson
Group I: Miss Van Schuyler