"Then I will tell you, relying entirely upon your honour and that ofyour colleague, Dr. Watson. I may appeal to your patriotism also, forI could not imagine a greater misfortune for the country than that thisaffair should come out."
"You may safely trust us."
"The letter, then, is from a certain foreign potentate who has beenruffled by some recent Colonial developments of this country. Ithas been written hurriedly and upon his own responsibility entirely.Inquiries have shown that his Ministers know nothing of the matter.At the same time it is couched in so unfortunate a manner, and certainphrases in it are of so provocative a character, that its publicationwould undoubtedly lead to a most dangerous state of feeling in thiscountry. There would be such a ferment, sir, that I do not hesitate tosay that within a week of the publication of that letter this countrywould be involved in a great war."
Holmes wrote a name upon a slip of paper and handed it to the Premier.
"Exactly. It was he. And it is this letter--this letter which may wellmean the expenditure of a thousand millions and the lives of a hundredthousand men--which has become lost in this unaccountable fashion."
"Have you informed the sender?"
"Yes, sir, a cipher telegram has been despatched."
"Perhaps he desires the publication of the letter."
"No, sir, we have strong reason to believe that he already understandsthat he has acted in an indiscreet and hot-headed manner. It would be agreater blow to him and to his country than to us if this letter were tocome out."
"If this is so, whose interest is it that the letter should come out?Why should anyone desire to steal it or to publish it?"
"There, Mr. Holmes, you take me into regions of high internationalpolitics. But if you consider the European situation you will have nodifficulty in perceiving the motive. The whole of Europe is an armedcamp. There is a double league which makes a fair balance of militarypower. Great Britain holds the scales. If Britain were driven intowar with one confederacy, it would assure the supremacy of the otherconfederacy, whether they joined in the war or not. Do you follow?"
"Very clearly. It is then the interest of the enemies of this potentateto secure and publish this letter, so as to make a breach between hiscountry and ours?"
"Yes, sir."
"And to whom would this document be sent if it fell into the hands of anenemy?"
"To any of the great Chancelleries of Europe. It is probably speeding onits way thither at the present instant as fast as steam can take it."
Mr. Trelawney Hope dropped his head on his chest and groaned aloud. ThePremier placed his hand kindly upon his shoulder.
"It is your misfortune, my dear fellow. No one can blame you. There isno precaution which you have neglected. Now, Mr. Holmes, you are in fullpossession of the facts. What course do you recommend?"
Holmes shook his head mournfully.
"You think, sir, that unless this document is recovered there will bewar?"
"I think it is very probable."
"Then, sir, prepare for war."
"That is a hard saying, Mr. Holmes."
"Consider the facts, sir. It is inconceivable that it was taken aftereleven-thirty at night, since I understand that Mr. Hope and his wifewere both in the room from that hour until the loss was found out.It was taken, then, yesterday evening between seven-thirty andeleven-thirty, probably near the earlier hour, since whoever took itevidently knew that it was there and would naturally secure it as earlyas possible. Now, sir, if a document of this importance were taken atthat hour, where can it be now? No one has any reason to retain it. Ithas been passed rapidly on to those who need it. What chance have we nowto overtake or even to trace it? It is beyond our reach."
The Prime Minister rose from the settee.
"What you say is perfectly logical, Mr. Holmes. I feel that the matteris indeed out of our hands."
"Let us presume, for argument's sake, that the document was taken by themaid or by the valet----"
"They are both old and tried servants."
"I understand you to say that your room is on the second floor, thatthere is no entrance from without, and that from within no one could goup unobserved. It must, then, be somebody in the house who has taken it.To whom would the thief take it? To one of several international spiesand secret agents, whose names are tolerably familiar to me. There arethree who may be said to be the heads of their profession. I will beginmy research by going round and finding if each of them is at his post.If one is missing--especially if he has disappeared since last night--wewill have some indication as to where the document has gone."
"Why should he be missing?" asked the European Secretary. "He would takethe letter to an Embassy in London, as likely as not."
"I fancy not. These agents work independently, and their relations withthe Embassies are often strained."